Episode 31 - Polling, Politics, And Predictions with Patrick Murray, founding director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute
What are the polls saying? Patrick Murray, founding director of the Monmouth University Poll, talks about his 20+ year career conducting media polling and custom-designed research projects for a variety of clients including what he was seeing in polls pre-pandemic versus now, during these unprecedented times, and how the 2020 election might be affected.
Patrick Murray is an expert at not only designing and conducting polls, but also explaining how opinion polls work. Using examples, Mr. Murray describes the polling process and how the media often mistakenly uses them to predict outcomes. The 2016 Presidential Election Polls is reviewed and Mr. Murray discusses how the pollsters got it wrong. (They didn’t).
2:30 - Who started professional opinion polling in America?
5:20 - How can a pollster be assured the person being interviewed is telling the truth? How does social bias affect opinion poll accuracy? How partisanship affects polling.
8:30 - What lessons have the media, pollsters, and the public learned from the 2016 Presidential affection.
15:00 - What factors will affect opinion polls during the 2020 pandemic.
18:00 - How has the Black Lives Matter movement and protest change society in the polls?
19:00 - Can polls affect change?
22:10 - People act on their perception of reality - not reality. Polls can measure people’s perception.
28:50 - What are the most pressing issues as we move toward the 2020 elections.
Guest: Patrick Murray, founding director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Hosts: CurtCo Media’s CEO, Bill Curtis, Pulitzer-Prize Historian, Ed Larson, and International Trade Attorney and Malibu Democratic Club President, Jane Albrecht
Produced by: Mike Thomas
Sound Engineering by: Michael Kennedy
Theme Music by: Celleste & Eric Dick